2026 midterm election races to watch
CBS News’ Battleground Tracker polling is back for 2026, capturing what’s on voters’ minds and the key groups to watch coast to coast, as well as what it means for districts, seat estimates and control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Every district and state matters, but CBS News also identifies nine key Senate and 42 House races that will likely decide the majority — all of which can change as the campaign rolls on.
Democrats and Republicans are focusing on a small number of races in the House and the Senate as they fight for control of Congress in the midterm elections this fall.
Republicans, who currently have the majority in both chambers, are vulnerable primarily because of the unpopular Iran war and continuing cost-of-living economic pressure.
Senate
Republicans have 53 seats, and Democrats have 47. Most of the 22 seats the GOP is defending are in states Mr. Trump easily won in 2024. Democrats must add a net total of four seats to take the majority while also defending a few seats against GOP challenges.
Here are the nine 2026 Senate races to watch:
Alaska
GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola are the front-runners in Alaska’s top-four primary, where another candidate by the same name as the incumbent is also on the ballot. Alaska hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, but the party is eyeing the race as a pickup opportunity.
Iowa
GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and state Rep. Josh Turek are facing off in Iowa after Sen. Joni Ernst decided not to seek reelection. The race has grown surprisingly competitive in a state that’s shifted to the right in recent years, as affordability issues and the Trump tariff policies weigh on Iowans.
Maine
GOP Sen. Susan Collins is defending her seat against Troy Jackson, who became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner bowed out of the race in July following a sexual assault allegation. Collins has survived challenges in previous reelection fights, but Democrats are optimistic about their chances in a state that Kamala Harris won in 2024 by almost 7 points.
Michigan
Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed are vying for an open seat in Michigan after Sen. Gary Peters decided to retire from Congress. El-Sayed is a progressive former Michigan health official who defeated a more moderate opponent in a divisive Democratic primary, while Rogers is seeking the seat after losing a bid to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last cycle.
Ohio
GOP Sen. Jon Husted is defending his seat against a comeback bid by former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his reelection bid in Ohio’s other Senate seat last cycle. Democrats are hoping Brown’s working-class brand will propel him to victory against Husted, the former lieutenant governor who was appointed to JD Vance’s seat last year after Vance became vice president.
Texas
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico are competing in a closely watched contest in the Lone Star State. Democrats saw their chances of flipping the seat improve after Paxton defeated incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn, given Paxton’s history of personal controversies and more conservative positions. But Republicans remain confident in their chances of holding onto the seat, though some concede that the race will be tough — and expensive.
Georgia
GOP Rep. Mike Collins is taking on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia in a competitive race that was once expected to be the easiest pickup opportunity for Republicans. But a messy Republican primary slowed the launch of Republicans’ general election fight to unseat the first-term senator.
North Carolina
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley are jockeying for a seat representing North Carolina in the Senate after GOP Sen. Thom Tillis announced he wouldn’t seek reelection. Democrats see the seat in the Tar Heel State as a key prize, representing their best chance at flipping a seat this cycle.
New Hampshire
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former GOP Sen. John Sununu are running for an open Senate seat in New Hampshire to fill Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s seat upon her retirement. New Hampshire hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, but Republicans are hopeful about the prospects for Sununu, whose family has been dominant in Granite State politics.
House
All 435 House seats are up for election, with 218 as the threshold for the majority. The House is currently very narrowly divided, with 218 Republicans, plus an independent who caucuses with the GOP, and 214 Democrats. Two seats are vacant.
These are the 42 House races to watch:
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District
Republican Jay Feely and Democrat Amish Shah are vying to replace eight-term GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who ran unsuccessfully for governor. Feely, an NFL veteran and former analyst for CBS Sports, initially ran in another district, but he switched at the urging of President Trump. Shah failed to unseat Schweikert in 2024.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District
Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is up against Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza in the district that stretches from the Tucson-area suburbs down to the southeastern corner of the state along the U.S.-Mexico border.
California’s 13th Congressional District
The seat held by Democratic Rep. Adam Gray is one of the House Republicans’ campaign arm’s top targets. Gray flipped the seat in 2024, narrowly winning by fewer than 200 votes. In 2022, he lost by fewer than 600 votes. In June’s nonpartisan primary, he had a significant advantage over Republican Kevin Lincoln, a Marine veteran.
California’s 22nd Congressional District
GOP Rep. David Valadao is one of two remaining House Republicans in Congress who voted to impeach President Trump in 2021 over the Capitol riot. He is the last one running for reelection, since Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse is retiring. Valadao is running against Democrat Randy Villegas in the newly redrawn district.
California’s 45th Congressional District
Democratic Rep. Derek Tran’s district was redrawn as part of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting push, making his new district one that Vice President Kamala Harris won by only 4 points. The House Republicans’ campaign arm is backing former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo in its effort to target the Orange County-area district.
California’s 48th Congressional District
Republican Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni Von Wilpert are on the ballot to replace outgoing GOP Rep. Darrell Issa in a newly redrawn Southern California district.
Colorado’s 8th Congressional District
GOP Rep. Gabe Evans, who flipped a seat held by a Democrat in 2025, is running for reelection against Democrat Manny Rutinel, a progressive state representative. The district, which is north of Denver, has a sizable Latino population.
Florida’s 14th Congressional District
Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor’s Tampa-area district has been redrawn to be more friendly to Republican, but it is still rated as Lean Democratic. Former state Rep. Mike Beltran won the crowded GOP primary to take on Castor in the fall.
Florida’s 22nd Congressional District
After this district was gerrymandered to be more GOP-friendly, its congresswoman, Democrat Lois Frankel, opted instead to run in the 23rd District. Democrat Pia Dandiya won the August primary, and Republican Casey Askar prevailed in the crowded GOP primary. Both parties’ campaign arms are targeting the Palm Beach County district.
Florida’s 25th Congressional District
Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz is running for reelection here, though the Boca Raton-area district’s boundaries were altered to be more favorable to Republicans. Moskowitz faces former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer on the ballot.
Iowa’s 1st Congressional District
Democrat Christina Bohannan is trying for a third time to unseat Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Miller-Meeks has won several close races since 2020.
Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District
Republican Joe Mitchell and Democrat Lindsay James are on the ballot to replace GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is running for Senate.
Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District
GOP Rep. Zach Nunn is defending his seat against Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott. Nunn, who has represented the Des Moines-area district since 2023, won reelection in 2024 by less than 4 points.
Michigan’s 4th Congressional District
Longtime GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga is trying to fend off a challenge from Democrat Sean McCann, a state senator.
Michigan’s 7th Congressional District
GOP Rep. Tom Barrett, who was first elected in 2024, is one of a handful of Republicans who have supported Democratic-led war powers resolutions to rein in President Trump on Iran. He’s facing Democrat William Lawrence, who cofounded the Sunrise Movement and is a former member of the Democratic Socialists of America.
Michigan’s 8th Congressional District
After suspending his campaign, Thomas Smith defeated a Trump-backed candidate to win the GOP primary and take on Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet. Though the district elected McDonald Rivet in 2024, it also voted for President Trump.
Michigan’s 10th Congressional District
Republican Michael Bouchard and Democrat Christina Hines are competing for the open seat, which is currently held by GOP Rep. John James, who is running for Michigan governor.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
Republican Brinker Harding and Democrat Denise Powell are hoping to replace retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon in the Omaha-area district. Though the seat has been in GOP hands for all but two years in the last three decades, the district has voted for a Democrat in three of the last five presidential elections.
Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District
Video game music composer Marty O’Donnell is hoping to unseat Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in the 3rd District, which touches parts of Las Vegas.
New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas opted to run for Senate this year, leaving the swingy seat open. Pappas has held the seat since 2017, but before that, it flipped five times between Republican and Democrats. Democrat Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, will face Republican Anthony DiLorenzo.
New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District
GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. is defending his seat against Democrat Rebecca Bennett, after his lengthy absence from Congress earlier this year. Upon his return to work in June, he disclosed he had been diagnosed with depression and was hospitalized for treatment.
New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District
Marine veteran Greg Cunningham is challenging Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the district, which spans the southern half of the state and includes part of Albuquerque. Vasquez was elected to the House in 2022, flipping the seat.
New York’s 3rd Congressional District
Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi is defending his seat against former New York state Rep. Mike LePetri in the Long Island district. The longtime Democratic district flipped Republican in 2022, but after former Rep. George Santos was expelled from Congress, Suozzi won the special election for the seat. He was reelected in 2024, though Mr. Trump won the district.
New York’s 4th Congressional District
In 2024, Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen defeated the Republican incumbent, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, after he beat her in the race for the open Long Island seat in 2022. She’ll face local tax receiver and GOP candidate Jeanine Driscoll.
New York’s 17th Congressional District
GOP Rep. Mike Lawler has held the lower Hudson Valley seat since 2023, casting himself as a moderate who can work across the aisle. Democrat Cait Conley, a national security expert and Army combat veteran, moved to the district shortly before announcing her candidacy, though she grew up in the region. Harris narrowly won the district against Mr. Trump in 2024.
New York’s 19th Congressional District
Democratic Rep. Josh Riley is trying for a second term in a district that has been competitive. GOP state Sen. Peter Oberacker is his opponent.
North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District
The race is a rematch between Republican Laurie Buckhout and Democratic Rep. Don Davis. Davis is facing a tough reelection bid in a district that has leaned further to the right after several rounds of gerrymandering by state Republicans.
North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District
GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards dropped his reelection bid after a House Ethics Committee investigation concluded he engaged in “persistent unprofessional and inappropriate conduct” toward two young women who worked for him. Republican state Rep. Jennifer Balkom replaced Edwards on the ballot and will face Democrat Jamie Ager.
Ohio’s 1st Congressional District
With Ohio’s new court-approved congressional map, Republicans are targeting the 1st District, represented by Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman since 2023. Air Force veteran and former CIA case officer Eric Conroy won the crowded GOP primary with Mr. Trump’s backing. Although Mr. Trump won the new district under its new boundaries, CBS News rates the district as Lean Democratic.
Ohio’s 9th Congressional District
Voters have another chance to pick between longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur and Republican Derek Merrin. Merrin tried to unseat Kaptur in 2024, but lost by about 2,400 votes — just above the threshold needed to trigger an automatic recount. The Northwest Ohio district was redrawn in October 2025, creating a more Republican-leaning seat.
Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District
Democrat Bob Harvie is taking on GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who has been one of a few House Republicans to vote to limit President Trump’s ability to further strike Iran. Fitzpatrick won reelection in 2024 by nearly 13 points.
Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District
GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie flipped the district in 2024, beating the Democratic incumbent by 1 percentage point. This year, he faces retired firefighter Bob Brooks.
Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District
Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan is running against Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. In 2024, Bresnahan defeated incumbent Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright by less than 2 points.
Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District
The race is a rematch between former TV news anchor Janelle Stelson and Republican Rep. Scott Perry. Stelson narrowly lost to Perry in 2024 by about 5,000 votes in the district that covers Harrisburg, York and the surrounding areas.
Texas’ 15th Congressional District
Tejano musician Bobby Pulido is trying to unseat GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the Hispanic-majority district. De La Cruz flipped the seat in 2022 and President Trump won it by nearly 20 points in 2024, but Latino voters have shown a swing to the left since then.
Texas’ 28th Congressional District
After Texas redrew its congressional districts, 11-term incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar’s district has become more friendly to Republicans. The GOP has long targeted Cuellar and considers the district a priority, but Cuellar has proven resilient. He also faced federal charges of bribery and money laundering, but Mr. Trump pardoned him last Decembercorruptionto have strength. Cuellar faces Republican Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina in November.
Texas’ 34th Congressional District
Mr. Trump made inroadsgains withamong Latinos in Texas in 2024, but though he won despite his winning the 34th District along the U.S.-Mexico border, incumbent Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez prevailedsurvived in his 2024 race. Redistricting has made the district slightly more GOP-friendly, making it a top target for Republicansof House Republicans’ campaign arm. Republican Mayra Flores is challenginggoing up against Gonzalez in the general election for a third time.
Texas’ 35th Congressional District
After Texas’ gerrymander, the new 35th District is more Republican-friendly, encompassinges only 10% of the current district. Itand excludes solidly blue Austin, where its current Rep.representative, Greg Casar, lives, and to become more friendly to Republicans. Casar opted to run in the new 37th District, leaving the 35th District open. Democrat Johnny Garcia and Republican Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz, won their crowded primaries and are competing for the seatnow will face off on the ballot.
Virginia’s 1st Congressional District
GOP Rep. Rob Wittman is hoping to extend Republicans’ control of the seat for another two years. Republicans have held the seat since 1977. Wittman’s Democratic rival is Henrico County’s top prosecutor, Shannon Taylor.
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District
GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans is defending her seat against former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, who represented the district for two terms before losing to Kiggans in 2022 after redistricting made the area more favorable to Republicans.
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District
Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez twice defeated far-right conservative Joe Kent, who went on to become Trump’s counterterrorism chief before he resigned in protest over the Iran war. This year she’s defending her seat against John Braun, who has served in various leadership roles since his election to the state Senate in 2012. Mr. Trump won the district in 2024.
Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District
The race is a rematch between Democrat Rebecca Cooke and the Republican incumbent, Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who is running for his third term. Cooke, who owned a store that closed after the pandemic, lost to Van Orden in 2024 by less than 3 points. She has been balancing campaigning with waitressing, her website says.
