{"id":83999,"date":"2026-06-06T13:27:49","date_gmt":"2026-06-06T13:27:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/prediction-markets-offer-the-lure-of-fast-money-young-men-say-they-like-their-odds\/"},"modified":"2026-06-06T13:27:49","modified_gmt":"2026-06-06T13:27:49","slug":"prediction-markets-offer-the-lure-of-fast-money-young-men-say-they-like-their-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/prediction-markets-offer-the-lure-of-fast-money-young-men-say-they-like-their-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction markets offer the lure of fast money. Young men say they like their odds."},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>Earlier this year, Thomas Christian Owens decided to try his hand at prediction market trading for the first time. He created a Kalshi account in January. Three months and a $500 deposit later, he started betting.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It was a little bit of a birthday gift to myself to throw some money in there and just have some fun,&#8221; the 29-year-old manufacturing engineer told CBS News.<\/p>\n<p>Owens wasn&#8217;t expecting to make a killing. He told CBS News that he wanted a little extra money in his pocket to support himself and some of his family members. He had some early successes, but just over a month after he started trading, the Oklahoma City resident found himself in the red.<\/p>\n<p>Young men like Owens say they are drawn <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/kalshi-polymarket-insider-trading-prediction-markets-house-oversight-probe\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">to prediction markets<\/a><\/span> in search of thrills, fast money and in some cases, financial security.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Close to 40% of young men between 18 and 34 use prediction markets, according to an April <a href=\"https:\/\/navigatorresearch.org\/americans-oppose-unfair-prediction-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">survey<\/a> from Navigator Research, a public opinion research organization. On Kalshi, one of the leading prediction markets in the U.S., roughly 3 million of the platform&#8217;s 4 million active users are male. Six in 10 of the platform&#8217;s total users are between the ages of 18 and 34.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Prediction markets have recently drawn scrutiny for alleged insider trading \u2014 with men at the center of several high-profile cases. That includes a <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/polymarket-google-employee-insider-trading-charges-spagnuolo-d4vd\/\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Google employee<\/a><\/span> who was accused of allegedly making more than $1.2 million on Polymarket betting on confidential company information.\u00a0 A U.S. special forces soldier <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/u-s-special-forces-won-409k-bet-maduro-removal-venezuela\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">was arrested<\/a><\/span>\u00a0after allegedly betting <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/us-investigation-of-nicolas-maduro-what-may-be-next-for-venezuela-60-minutes-transcript\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">on the removal from office<\/a><\/span> of former Venezuelan leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro before news of the U.S. raid was made public. Former Rep. George Santos of New York is also<span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/newyork\/news\/george-santos-suspicious-kalshi-trades\/\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\"> under scrutiny<\/a><\/span> for alleged insider trading on Kalshi.<\/p>\n<p>Experts say it&#8217;s not surprising that men are the primary customers of prediction markets, given their propensity for risk.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Young men tend to express more confidence than women when it comes to financial decisions and taking risks,&#8221; said Michael Liersch, a behavioral finance expert and chief planning officer at investment adviser Edelman Financial Engines. &#8220;That has to do with a strong belief about being right.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>The thrill of prediction markets<\/h2>\n<p>Prediction markets allow users to bet on a wide range of prospective events. To trade on the platforms, users typically place wagers on &#8220;yes&#8221; and &#8220;no&#8221; questions called event contracts, which are priced between $0 and $1. A successful wager results in a $1 payout per contract, while an incorrect prediction loses money.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Users can trade on anything from whether the U.S. government will confirm the existence of aliens to which men&#8217;s team will win this year&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/soccer\/world-cup\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">World Cup<\/a>. Owens, a basketball fan, mostly trades on sports-related events, including bets on his hometown NBA team, the Oklahoma City Thunder.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embed embed--type-image is-image embed--float-none embed--size-medium\">\n<p>      <span class=\"img embed__content \"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com\/hub\/i\/r\/2026\/06\/05\/cc71292d-86a2-4c11-becd-319aacb4a7a6\/thumbnail\/620x469\/670fb88d38020b70222dd63f1aaa2316\/1000071845-1-edited.jpg#\" alt=\"1000071845-1-edited.jpg \" height=\"469\" width=\"620\" class=\" lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com\/hub\/i\/r\/2026\/06\/05\/cc71292d-86a2-4c11-becd-319aacb4a7a6\/thumbnail\/620x469\/670fb88d38020b70222dd63f1aaa2316\/1000071845-1-edited.jpg 1x, https:\/\/assets3.cbsnewsstatic.com\/hub\/i\/r\/2026\/06\/05\/cc71292d-86a2-4c11-becd-319aacb4a7a6\/thumbnail\/1240x938\/32f4986de67f2b684ac719293b5b0d6b\/1000071845-1-edited.jpg 2x\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/span><figcaption class=\"embed__caption-container\">\n<p>                  <span class=\"embed__caption\">Oklahoma City resident Thomas Christian Owens started trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi for the first time this year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>                  <span class=\"embed__credit\"><\/p>\n<p>                Provided by Thomas Christian Owens<\/p>\n<p>                          <\/span><br \/>\n              <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>One of his early basketball &#8220;combo&#8221; bets, which lets users bundle multiple event contracts into a single trade, netted him $456 from a $50 wager \u2014 a more than an 800% return. On another combo bet, he accurately predicted the outcome of three pro basketball games, turning $196 into nearly $1,700.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Another popular wager for prediction market users is so-called &#8220;mention markets,&#8221;<strong> <\/strong>which allow users to put money on specific words or phrases that politicians, celebrities and other people will use during events.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s how Steven Zhang, a student at the University of California, Los Angeles, first heard about Polymarket. The 20-year-old was studying in the library with a friend in 2024 when he came across a social media ad inviting people to bet on what President Trump would say during a presidential debate. Zhang had seen the ad a few times before. This time, he and his friends decided they wanted some skin in the game.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I remember we put $20 into Polymarket, in a crypto wallet, and then we made some bets, and we lost it all,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embed embed--type-image is-image embed--float-none embed--size-medium\">\n<p>      <span class=\"img embed__content \"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets3.cbsnewsstatic.com\/hub\/i\/r\/2026\/06\/05\/7f956000-23f1-49b5-9b62-eb8db5154dd0\/thumbnail\/620x487\/4a74ca4261eefd796a915cff30f6f993\/img-4430-1-edited.jpg#\" alt=\"img-4430-1-edited.jpg \" height=\"487\" width=\"620\" class=\" lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets3.cbsnewsstatic.com\/hub\/i\/r\/2026\/06\/05\/7f956000-23f1-49b5-9b62-eb8db5154dd0\/thumbnail\/620x487\/4a74ca4261eefd796a915cff30f6f993\/img-4430-1-edited.jpg 1x, https:\/\/assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com\/hub\/i\/r\/2026\/06\/05\/7f956000-23f1-49b5-9b62-eb8db5154dd0\/thumbnail\/1240x974\/e2f0bf828399a9a1b7095990245c232b\/img-4430-1-edited.jpg 2x\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/span><figcaption class=\"embed__caption-container\">\n<p>                  <span class=\"embed__caption\">Twenty-year-old Steven Zhang trades mostly on Kalshi mention markets, which allow users to bet on whether someone will say a specific word or phrase during an event.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>                  <span class=\"embed__credit\"><\/p>\n<p>                Provided by Steven Zhang<\/p>\n<p>                          <\/span><br \/>\n              <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Zhang now trades on Kalshi, betting on highly uncertain outcomes such as what TV announcers will say during NBA games and the U.S.-Iran conflict. &#8220;I&#8217;m starting really small. I think I have like $150 in my account,&#8221; he said. &#8220;I have the amount of money that I&#8217;m comfortable losing.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>CBS News reached out to Kalshi with questions about its male customer base but did not receive a response prior to publication.<\/p>\n<p>For Zhang, the thrill of prediction markets is putting your money where your mouth is.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Knowing that you could be right or wrong, I think, is part of the game,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>Experts say that part of why men seek out prediction markets can boil down to a simple biological differentiation. Men are more likely to consider speculative assets and are less afraid to lose money than their female counterparts.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;They have maybe less of what economists call an endowment effect, which is when they have a certain amount, they don&#8217;t care [if they] lose it all as readily as maybe women do,&#8221; David Bieri, an associate professor at Virginia Tech, told CBS News.<\/p>\n<p>When men strike it lucky on prediction markets, they walk away with more than just money: they earn bragging rights, Bieri said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;There is social status from being seen as successful in these high-prestige markets,&#8221; he told CBS News. &#8220;Which young man does not want to be the &#8216;Wolf of Wall Street&#8217;?&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>A losing game?<\/h2>\n<p>When Owens opened a Kalshi account, he said he hoped any winnings would supplement his income and enable him to offer financial support to his family.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I&#8217;m not supporting anybody as a dependent right now, but I have a few family members that are really down on their finances at the moment, so trying to help them out, too,&#8221; he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Beyond making extra money, men may also turn to prediction markets in search of financial security. In a recent survey, Northwestern Mutual found that 75% of men feel financially behind and think speculative investments, including prediction markets, can help them catch up. That&#8217;s compared to 69% of women.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;When people feel behind, sometimes risky choices can look like a shortcut,&#8221; John Roberts, chief field officer at Northwestern Mutual, told CBS News in an email, adding that headlines about rising prices and possible <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/social-security-trust-fund-depletion-benefit-cuts-by-state\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Social Security cuts<\/a><\/span> can add to the pressure.<\/p>\n<p>But the reality for most users differs from the expectations that brought them to the site. After a string of losses, Owens&#8217; account balance recently dropped to $1,700 \u2014 below the $2,500 he had deposited. Out of caution, he is now keeping his prediction market bets to under $100, he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I had almost $4,600 at one point but squandered that, for sure,&#8221; Owens wrote in a text message.<\/p>\n<p>A handful of Kalshi users have made hundreds of millions of dollars. But that&#8217;s highly unlikely for the vast majority of users. According to a Wall Street Journal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/finance\/investing\/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">analysis<\/a>, more than 67% of profits on Polymarket went to 0.1% of accounts. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A Polymarket spokesperson didn&#8217;t address a series of questions posed by CBS News for this story, instead responding with a statement saying: &#8220;Polymarket is open to eligible adults 18 and older, and we continue to build on our mission to share human-informed knowledge with the world through open, capital-backed markets.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The average user prediction market has the odds stacked against them, according to Jordan Bender, managing director of gaming equity research at the financial firm Citizens.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/citizens.bluematrix.com\/links2\/pdf\/48a96ce3-4046-47e6-8802-ee13a52f18b8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Research<\/a> from Citizens found that the median return on investment for a prediction market user was -8%, meaning they would lose $8 for every $100 spent.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;People shouldn&#8217;t expect to walk into betting of any type and walk away a winner,&#8221; Bender said.<\/p>\n<section class=\"content__body--footer\">\n<p class=\"content__meta--editors\">\n      Edited by<\/p>\n<p>                                  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/team\/cara-tabachnick\/\" class=\"byline__author__link\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Cara  Tabachnick<\/a> and <\/p>\n<p>                                  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/team\/alain-sherter\/\" class=\"byline__author__link\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Alain  Sherter<\/a>\n                      <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"content__body--footer\">\n      <!-- tags --><\/p>\n<section class=\"content__tags\">\n<p class=\"content__tags__label\">In:<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/prediction-markets-men-polymarket-kalshi\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Earlier this year, Thomas Christian Owens decided to try his hand at prediction market trading for the first time. He<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":84000,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39],"tags":[8649,8648,8930],"class_list":["post-83999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","tag-kalshi","tag-polymarket","tag-prediction-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Prediction markets offer the lure of fast money. 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