{"id":73723,"date":"2026-04-03T21:58:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-03T21:58:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/chicago-fed-president-austan-goolsbee-sees-inflation-from-iran-war-as-risk-to-2026-rate-cuts\/"},"modified":"2026-04-03T21:58:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T21:58:11","slug":"chicago-fed-president-austan-goolsbee-sees-inflation-from-iran-war-as-risk-to-2026-rate-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/chicago-fed-president-austan-goolsbee-sees-inflation-from-iran-war-as-risk-to-2026-rate-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee sees inflation from Iran war as risk to 2026 rate cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee thinks that the <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/live-updates\/iran-war-us-trump-warns-more-coming-oil-gas-strait-hormuz\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Iran war<\/a><\/span> risks fueling inflation, which would make it harder for the central bank to ease interest rates in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Goolsbee \u2014 who emphasized he was speaking for himself and not for the Federal Reserve as a whole \u2014 told CBS News that, before the start of the conflict, he was confident the Fed could cut its benchmark rate this year. But that optimism has waned as the war drives up oil and fuel prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Before the war, before we got the oil shock, I&#8217;ve been on the optimistic side of the rate \u2014 I believed rates could come down even multiple times in 2026,&#8221; Goolsbee said.<\/p>\n<p>The energy shock &#8220;complicates that picture for me \u2014 that if we&#8217;re truly not going to see any improvement in inflation, to me that starts pushing these decisions off to 2027 at the earliest,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed in March left the federal funds rate \u2014 what banks charge each other for short-term loans \u2014 <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/federal-reserve-fomc-march-18-interest-rate-decision\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">unchanged because<\/a><\/span> of mounting economic uncertainty amid the Iran war, although policymakers indicated they still expected to cut rates once in 2026. Since then, energy costs have continued to rise, with the average price of gasoline hitting $4.09 a gallon on Friday, more than $1 higher than before the war.<\/p>\n<p>In 2026, Goolsbee is serving as one of five alternate members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank&#8217;s rate-setting panel. He participates in discussions and contributes to economic assessments, and is slated to rotate onto the committee as a voting member in 2027,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomc.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according<\/a>\u00a0to the Fed.<\/p>\n<p>Private economists are also paring their forecasts for interest rate cuts this year due to the risk that higher oil and fuel prices will reignite inflation, which remained well above the Fed&#8217;s 2% annual target before the Iran war began. CME FedWatch, which bases the probability of rate cuts based on 30-Day Fed funds futures prices, now predicts that the Fed won&#8217;t issue a single rate cut in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>The next Consumer Price Index report, set to be released on April 10, is likely to show that March prices rose at a 3.1% annual pace, accelerating from February&#8217;s <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/cpi-report-today-february-2026-inflation-iran-war-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">2.4% rate<\/a><\/span>, according to economists polled by FactSet.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div style=\"min-height:481px\" id=\"datawrapper-vis-xHa2t\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/xHa2t\/full.png\" alt=\"How fast are prices rising? (Line chart)\"\/><\/div>\n<p> <amp-iframe width=\"100\" height=\"100\" layout=\"responsive\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin\" resizable=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.datawrapper.de\/_\/xHa2t\/?v=6\"> <\/amp-iframe><\/div>\n<p>Pressure on household budgets from higher energy prices could threaten to derail consumer spending, Goolsbee told CBS News. Even before the war, many Americans were feeling pinched financially, and coping with the sharp increase in gas prices could cause some to pull back on spending in other areas, he added.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s in the near term, but not immediate, that you would start to see that weighing down the consumer,&#8221; he said. &#8220;They would just get sticker shock \u2014 people were already highly concerned about affordability and the cost of living, and this would just be piling onto it.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Consumer spending has been &#8220;the backbone of our growth,&#8221; Goolsbee said, adding that the pressure on households from higher costs &#8220;endangers the extended nature of this boom.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n<div style=\"min-height:565px\" id=\"datawrapper-vis-FinjE\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/FinjE\/full.png\" alt=\"Gas prices over time (Line chart)\"\/><\/div>\n<p> <amp-iframe width=\"100\" height=\"100\" layout=\"responsive\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin\" resizable=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/FinjE\/\">  <\/amp-iframe><\/div>\n<p>Goolsbee also worries that economic uncertainty arising from the Iran war could spill over into the labor market, which on Friday posted stronger-than-expected March gains, with <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/jobs-report-today-march-2026-economy-iran-war-bls\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">178,000 new jobs<\/a><\/span> created last month. The Labor Department revised February&#8217;s payrolls report lower to a loss of 133,000 jobs, larger than the 92,000 decline originally reported.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The labor market has been described as &#8220;low hire, low fire,&#8221; meaning that while companies aren&#8217;t doing much hiring, they also aren&#8217;t making large layoffs. Economic uncertainty is likely behind the current state of the labor market, Goolsbee said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I think that combination comes from so much uncertainty. Most of the businesses that I&#8217;m out here talking to in the Midwest say they&#8217;re a little bit sitting on their hands until they get some resolution, whether it&#8217;s geopolitical and the price of oil or tariffs, and what the rates are going to settle down to,&#8221; Goolsbee said.<\/p>\n<section class=\"content__body--footer\">\n<p class=\"content__meta--editors\">\n      Edited by<\/p>\n<p>                                  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/team\/alain-sherter\/\" class=\"byline__author__link\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Alain  Sherter<\/a>\n                      <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p>  <!-- data-recirc-source=\"queryly\" --><\/p>\n<aside class=\"component list recirculation component--type-recirculation  \">\n<p><h3 class=\"component__title\">More from CBS News<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"component__item-recirc-block\">\n<p><h3 class=\"component__title\">Go deeper with The Free Press<\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<section class=\"content__body--footer\">\n      <!-- tags --><\/p>\n<section class=\"content__tags\">\n<p class=\"content__tags__label\">In:<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/interest-rates-federal-reserve-austan-goolsbee-inflation-iran-war\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee thinks that the Iran war risks fueling inflation, which would make it<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":73724,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[957,1057],"class_list":["post-73723","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-money-watch","tag-inflation","tag-oil-and-gas"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee sees inflation from Iran war as risk to 2026 rate cuts - World News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said mounting inflation risks &amp;quot;complicates the picture&amp;quot; on interest rates.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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