{"id":7310,"date":"2025-02-19T17:26:22","date_gmt":"2025-02-19T17:26:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/odds-of-asteroid-yr4-2024-hitting-earth-in-2032-go-up-again-nasa-says\/"},"modified":"2025-02-19T17:26:22","modified_gmt":"2025-02-19T17:26:22","slug":"odds-of-asteroid-yr4-2024-hitting-earth-in-2032-go-up-again-nasa-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/odds-of-asteroid-yr4-2024-hitting-earth-in-2032-go-up-again-nasa-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Odds of asteroid YR4 2024 hitting Earth in 2032 go up again, NASA says"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>An asteroid gaining notoriety for its potential to <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/asteroid-2024-yr4-chance-hit-earth-what-to-know\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">collide with Earth in 2032<\/a><\/span>\u00a0now has roughly a 3% chance of striking our planet \u2014 the highest probability ever assigned \u2014 according to NASA and the European Space Agency.<\/p>\n<p>Risks of the massive space rock \u2014 which falls into the &#8220;city killer&#8221; category \u2014 actually making impact <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/city-killer-asteroid-odds-hitting-earth-increase-webb-telescope\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">have steadily increased<\/a><\/span> since it was first discovered last December. Called 2024 YR4, the near-Earth asteroid initially carried a 1% chance of hitting land when NASA and the ESA first announced its existence last month. Protocols require the agencies to formally notify the public when the odds of an asteroid strike reach that 1% threshold, which in itself is an extremely rare occurrence.<\/p>\n<p>NASA&#8217;s Jet Propulsion Laboratory says there is <a href=\"https:\/\/cneos.jpl.nasa.gov\/sentry\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">currently a 3.1% chance<\/a> the asteroid will hit Earth on December 22, 2032, during a fleeting window of time in which the rock&#8217;s orbit around the sun intersects the path of the planet. That means the odds of a collision are still quite small, about 1 in 32. The European Space Agency&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.esa.int\/rocketscience\/2025\/02\/04\/asteroid-2024-yr4-latest-updates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">latest probability estimate<\/a> is slightly lower than the one shared by NASA, at 2.8%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Both risk estimates have been revised upward since last week, when NASA and the ESA agreed the probability of an asteroid strike was closer to 2%.<\/p>\n<p>Astronomers and researchers have said the probability could drop to zero as they learn more about the asteroid, which will be closely observed by the James Webb Space Telescope before it disappears from view in April. Much of the risk is based on an area of &#8220;uncertainty&#8221; in outer space, where the asteroid may or may not end up, and rising odds reflect new insights into that area, according to Richard Moissl, the head of the European Space Agency&#8217;s Planetary Defence Office.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The size of the Earth \u2014 which is inside the uncertainty area \u2014 is compared to the entire area of the uncertainty of where the asteroid could be in that critical moment in time. This equated to about 1% when we reached this threshold for international awareness,&#8221; Moissl\u00a0<span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/key-facts-asteroid-could-hit-earth-2032-european-space-agency-expert\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">told CBS News<\/a><\/span> last week, speaking about how the odds of a collision are determined.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The size of the uncertainty region has shrunk since then, because more is known about it, so Earth, remaining the same size, occupies a greater portion of the region than it did originally. Scientifically, that drives up the probability even though nothing has truly changed,&#8221; Moissl said. He emphasized that even a 3% chance of hitting Earth corresponds with a 97% chance of missing it, and in all likelihood 2024 YR4 will not pose threats to our world.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embed embed--type-image is-image embed--float-none embed--size-medium\"><span class=\"img embed__content\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" alt=\"ap25044782297607.jpg \" height=\"600\" width=\"620\" class=\" lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com\/hub\/i\/r\/2025\/02\/19\/c39a69d3-4762-45b8-b0ae-2c2682caa4ee\/thumbnail\/620x600\/f32a19491a5dd657c53040a681abda9e\/ap25044782297607.jpg?v=db3d87ba7bf4d4ff13b65eabcf0d9bea 1x, https:\/\/assets2.cbsnewsstatic.com\/hub\/i\/r\/2025\/02\/19\/c39a69d3-4762-45b8-b0ae-2c2682caa4ee\/thumbnail\/1240x1200\/6c2478193c9cb247f5d49c4c9f65cff3\/ap25044782297607.jpg?v=db3d87ba7bf4d4ff13b65eabcf0d9bea 2x\"\/><\/span><figcaption class=\"embed__caption-container\"><span class=\"embed__caption\">This image made available by University of Hawaii&#8217;s asteroid impact alert system shows the motion of asteroid 2024 YR4 over about one hour, Dec. 27, 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>                  <span class=\"embed__credit\"><\/p>\n<p>                (ATLAS \/ University of Hawaii \/ NASA via AP<\/p>\n<p>                          <\/span><br \/>\n              <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&#8220;What will happen is, with our gaining knowledge, uncertainty will shrink further and further and further,&#8221; he continued. &#8220;And the expected case is that we will manage to shrink it so much that Earth is no longer inside this uncertainty region, and then the impact probability will drop to zero.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Probability of a crash will most likely dip below 1% before April, experts say, as the asteroid&#8217;s orbit carries it too far from Earth for humans to see it on the ground. After that, 2024 YR4 will not be visible again for four years.<\/p>\n<p>It is possible the probability of a collision continues to rise, moderately, if its route takes it on a &#8220;close flyby&#8221; of Earth. Moissl said &#8220;this is still no cause for alarm,&#8221; although international space organizations are taking the slim risk seriously. The asteroid, at 40 to 90 meters wide, could be capable of destroying a mid-sized city on Earth. If researchers find its actual size to be nearer the top end of that range, it could flatten some of the world&#8217;s largest metropolitan areas.<\/p>\n<p>    <!-- data-recirc-source=\"queryly\" --><\/p>\n<aside class=\"component list recirculation component--type-recirculation \"\/><!-- tags --><\/p>\n<div class=\"content-author\">\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/team\/emily-mae-czachor\/\" class=\"content-author__name\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Emily Mae Czachor<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"content-author__bio\">\n<div class=\"content-author__full-information\">\n<p class=\"content-author__text\">Emily Mae Czachor is a news editor at CBSNews.com. She typically covers breaking news, extreme weather and issues involving social and criminal justice. Emily Mae previously wrote for outlets like the Los Angeles Times, BuzzFeed and Newsweek.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/asteroid-hitting-earth-odds-go-up-again\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An asteroid gaining notoriety for its potential to collide with Earth in 2032\u00a0now has roughly a 3% chance of striking<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7311,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[1095,2757,833],"class_list":["post-7310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-top-stories","tag-asteroid","tag-james-webb-space-telescope","tag-nasa"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Odds of asteroid YR4 2024 hitting Earth in 2032 go up again, NASA says - World News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The asteroid 2024 YR4 has a very small chance of striking Earth when its orbit briefly intersects our planet&amp;#039;s in December 2032.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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