{"id":71091,"date":"2026-03-19T11:43:51","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T11:43:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/surging-u-s-gas-prices-could-erase-bigger-tax-refunds-analysis-finds\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T11:43:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T11:43:51","slug":"surging-u-s-gas-prices-could-erase-bigger-tax-refunds-analysis-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/surging-u-s-gas-prices-could-erase-bigger-tax-refunds-analysis-finds\/","title":{"rendered":"Surging U.S. gas prices could erase bigger tax refunds, analysis finds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>Higher U.S. gasoline prices stemming from <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/live-updates\/iran-war-us-israel-persian-gulf-strait-of-hormuz-trump-netanyahu\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">the Iran war<\/a><\/span>\u00a0could effectively wipe out the <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/irs-tax-refund-amounts-2026-increase\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">fatter tax refunds<\/a><\/span> many Americans are expected to collect this year, a new analysis found.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Economists from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nealemahoney.substack.com\/p\/spiking-gasoline-prices-may-wipe?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosmacro&amp;stream=business\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">estimate<\/a>\u00a0that the average U.S. household will spend an additional $740 on gas this year because of the jump in global oil prices following the attack on Iran. If that estimate holds true, it would gobble up nearly all of the additional money people are slated to collect in tax refunds this year, according to the research. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The nonpartisan Tax Foundation\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/taxfoundation.org\/blog\/2026-irs-data-tax-filing-season\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">estimates<\/a>\u00a0that the average individual tax refund will be $748 higher this year because of new cuts provided under the Republican-backed &#8220;one, big, beautiful bill act&#8221; (OBBBA), signed into law <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/trump-to-sign-one-big-beautiful-bill-ceremony-today-watch-live-2025-07-04\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">last year by President Trump<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>As of earlier this month, overall tax refunds were averaging <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irs.gov\/newsroom\/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-march-6-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">$3,676<\/a>, up 11% from the same point last year, according to the IRS.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>To be sure, the eventual pocketbook hit from higher U.S. energy prices depends on how long the conflict in Iran persists and, more specifically, how long the strategic Strait of Hormuz <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/strait-of-hormuz-iran-oil-prices-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">remains effectively blocked<\/a><\/span> to the tankers ferrying oil and liquid natural gas to global markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>&#8220;Rockets and feathers&#8221;<\/h2>\n<p>The Stanford researchers&#8217; calculation of the additional household gas expenditures assumes that the strait will remain closed for three weeks. If tensions ease and tankers start traversing the waterway sooner, estimates of how much consumers could spend on gas would change, Neale Mahoney, director of SIEPR, told CBS News.<\/p>\n<p>The Stanford estimate also reflects the &#8220;rockets and feathers&#8221; principle, Mahoney added \u2014 the concept that product prices are quick to shoot up when input costs climb, but tend to drift down slowly when those same costs decline.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>For now, the impact on energy costs is evident.\u00a0<span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/jones-act-trump-waiver-60-days-iran-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Oil prices spiked<\/a><\/span>\u00a0on Wednesday amid escalating attacks in the Gulf, with Brent crude rising to nearly <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/iran-war-gas-oil-prices-brent-west-texas-intermediate\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">$111 a barrel <\/a><\/span>and the U.S. benchmark jumping to roughly $99.<\/p>\n<p>The national average gas price soared to $3.88 per gallon on Thursday, up 96 cents from one month ago, according to AAA data.<\/p>\n<p>The Trump administration has\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/articles\/2026\/01\/president-trump-delivers-largest-tax-refund-season-in-u-s-history\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">touted<\/a> tax cuts under the OBBBA. The new law eliminated taxes on some overtime and tipped income, and raised the limit on the deduction for state and local taxes, or SALT, from $10,000 to $40,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<div style=\"min-height:480px\" id=\"datawrapper-vis-VKUkr\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/VKUkr\/full.png\" alt=\"Gas prices over time (Line chart)\"\/><\/div>\n<p> <amp-iframe width=\"100\" height=\"100\" layout=\"responsive\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin\" resizable=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/VKUkr\/\"> <\/amp-iframe><\/div>\n<section class=\"content__body--footer\">\n<p class=\"content__meta--editors\">\n      Edited by<\/p>\n<p>                                  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/team\/alain-sherter\/\" class=\"byline__author__link\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Alain  Sherter<\/a>\n                      <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p>  <!-- data-recirc-source=\"chartbeat\" --><\/p>\n<aside class=\"component list recirculation component--type-recirculation  component--type-recirculation-collection\">\n<\/aside>\n<section class=\"content__body--footer\">\n      <!-- tags --><\/p>\n<section class=\"content__tags\">\n<p class=\"content__tags__label\">In:<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/gas-prices-iran-war-tax-refunds-stanford\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Higher U.S. gasoline prices stemming from the Iran war\u00a0could effectively wipe out the fatter tax refunds many Americans are expected<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":71092,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[4107,247],"class_list":["post-71091","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us","tag-gas-prices","tag-tax-refund"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Surging U.S. gas prices could erase bigger tax refunds, analysis finds - World News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Stanford economists estimate that the typical U.S. household will spend an additional $740 on gas this year because of the jump in global oil prices.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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