{"id":4107,"date":"2025-02-05T18:31:25","date_gmt":"2025-02-05T18:31:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/the-physics-that-keeps-a-crowd-from-becoming-a-stampede\/"},"modified":"2025-02-05T18:31:25","modified_gmt":"2025-02-05T18:31:25","slug":"the-physics-that-keeps-a-crowd-from-becoming-a-stampede","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/the-physics-that-keeps-a-crowd-from-becoming-a-stampede\/","title":{"rendered":"The Physics That Keeps a Crowd From Becoming a Stampede"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Every July, at the opening ceremony of the San Ferm\u00edn festival signaling the imminent start of the running of the bulls in Pamplona, Spain, more than 5,000 people cram into the city\u2019s central plaza. The crowd starts the morning dressed in white. By noon, much of their clothing has been dyed pink by the free-flowing sangria.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Participants in the event have described the raucous crush of people to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/bartololab.com\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Denis Bartolo<\/a>, a physicist at the \u00c9cole Normale Sup\u00e9rieure in Lyon, France, who hasn\u2019t dared step foot in the plaza himself. \u201cThe density of people is so high that it\u2019s not just that you\u2019re feeling uncomfortable,\u201d he said he\u2019d been told. \u201cIt becomes painful, like you can feel pressure on your chest.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Over several years, he filmed and studied the event with the goal of perhaps one day helping prevent <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/01\/28\/world\/asia\/india-stampede-maha-kumbh-festival.html\" title=\"\">stampedes that can turn lethal<\/a> in large public events. <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-024-08514-6\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">In a paper published Wednesday<\/a> in the journal Nature, Dr. Bartolo and his colleagues say it may be possible to predict the spontaneous motion of a large crowd in a confined space once the density of people crosses a critical threshold.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Studying large, densely packed crowds is notoriously difficult. \u201cYou cannot just invite a thousand people to participate in an experiment,\u201d Dr. Bartolo said. Even if he could, \u201cI wouldn\u2019t know how to guarantee their safety,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">That\u2019s why the San Ferm\u00edn festival was so appealing. It involves thousands of people who gather predictably, and relatively calmly, each year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Dr. Bartolo and his colleagues mounted cameras on the upper balconies of two buildings on opposite sides of the plaza to film the attendees amassed below. \u201cIf you take a look at the video, indeed the dynamics seem to be erratic, chaotic, turbulent,\u201d he said. But he wondered whether he could tease out an organizing principle that governed the movements of the crowd.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Analyzing the footage presented a challenge akin to studying the flow of water. \u201cOf course you cannot detect the position of every single molecule of water. It\u2019s impossible,\u201d Dr. Bartolo said. And yet there are mathematical techniques from the field of fluid dynamics that allow researchers to measure the flow of a material by inspecting its direction and velocity. Dr. Bartolo applied these same methods to the San Ferm\u00edn festival.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The crowds turned out to be less chaotic than they appeared. Instead, the researchers detected circular oscillations within the sea of people. \u201cWe are talking about hundreds, if not thousands, of people, all following the same circular trajectory in sync,\u201d Dr. Bartolo said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In addition, the orbital motions, in which each person traces out a rough circle from their individual starting point in the crowd, took 18 seconds to complete in this particular plaza. The timing was so reliable that Dr. Bartolo said \u201cyou can set your clock\u201d to the dynamics of this crowd, even if the movements might initially seem random.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The research team then applied what they\u2019d learned to a deadly stampede. They examined <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/QpzISdBE3dA?si=8UQR6bT_--9zTuPP&amp;t=1164\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">surveillance footage<\/a> of the 2010 Love Parade in Duisburg, Germany, where 21 died and hundreds more were injured <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/07\/25\/world\/europe\/25germany.html\" title=\"\">in a stampede<\/a>. \u201cAnd we detected the very same oscillations,\u201d which emerged just before the deadly stampede, Dr. Bartolo said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">When the researchers built a mathematical model of crowd mechanics, they found that above a critical density of people, these circular movements emerge spontaneously. They don\u2019t depend on some internal or external force, such as people actively pushing one another.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As a safety precaution, Dr. Bartolo suggests monitoring densely packed crowds for these orbital motions. Detecting them can offer advance warning of the emergence of dangerous and uncontrolled movements. By catching oscillations when they\u2019re small, he says event organizers could ask the crowd to disperse, or stand still, before the orbits grow in size and lead to people being crushed or trampled.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe\u2019re not quite there yet,\u201d <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.math.uh.edu\/~quaini\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Annalisa Quaini<\/a>, a computational mathematician at the University of Houston who wasn\u2019t involved in the study, said of such real-world applications. It\u2019s one thing to have a well-lit venue filmed with high-quality cameras. But grainy nighttime security footage, for instance, may not reveal the telltale circular movements.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, Dr. Quaini called the research an important contribution to understanding the collective behavior of large dense crowds.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThis is a huge effort,\u201d she said. \u201cAnd one day, we will be able to use it in a practical setting.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/02\/05\/science\/crowds-stampedes-pamplona.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every July, at the opening ceremony of the San Ferm\u00edn festival signaling the imminent start of the running of the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4108,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[1065,1570,268,1498,188],"class_list":["post-4107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","tag-nature-journal","tag-physics","tag-research","tag-stampedes","tag-your-feed-science"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO 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