{"id":17781,"date":"2025-04-06T13:47:04","date_gmt":"2025-04-06T13:47:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/trump-tariffs-and-carney-canada-polls-show-liberals-with-early-election-lift\/"},"modified":"2025-04-06T13:47:04","modified_gmt":"2025-04-06T13:47:04","slug":"trump-tariffs-and-carney-canada-polls-show-liberals-with-early-election-lift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/trump-tariffs-and-carney-canada-polls-show-liberals-with-early-election-lift\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump, Tariffs and Carney: Canada Polls Show Liberals With Early Election Lift"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Though Canada\u2019s election began in earnest only late last month, public opinion polls have captured a gripping political narrative that has been unfolding since the start of the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Between President Trump\u2019s trade war, his threats of annexation and the resignation of Canada\u2019s last prime minister, a lot happened in the run-up to this race to shape how voters are feeling.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The election will take place April 28, so there\u2019s plenty of time for things to change, but The New York Times reviewed available public opinion polls, closely examining them for quality and consistency. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-195caff4\">Trump continues to wield significant influence.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">When Mr. Trump kicked off a trade war and <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/07\/world\/canada\/trump-trudeau-canada-51st-state.html\" title=\"\">began threatening the nation\u2019s sovereignty<\/a> in early February, he reversed months of polling trends: Support climbed for the Liberals and shrank for the Conservatives.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In only eight weeks, the Conservative Party\u2019s 20-plus-point lead vanished, and now the Liberals are leading the polls <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/newsinteractives.cbc.ca\/elections\/poll-tracker\/canada\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">by an average of six percentage points<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Canadians have consistently cited tensions with the United States as the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/leger360.com\/trump-tariffs-tracker-week-of-march-24\/?utm_campaign=trump-tracker&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9nHpbU6fcK7bov1pxI7DTeuAH9vmaQQs_-2o2UuX8G56sccDr1LQzGneI7qG3udjV9RC3s1z2i1jagpOR8v-la7NakWg&amp;_hsmi=353750906&amp;utm_content=353750906&amp;utm_source=hs_email\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">most important issue<\/a> facing the country. And among voters who had switched their intended support this year from another party to the Liberal Party, 51 percent said Mr. Trump\u2019s actions were one of their top two reasons for doing so, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/angusreid.org\/whats-with-that-liberal-surge-recent-grit-switchers-say-its-driven-by-carney-trumps-threats-the-abc-factor\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">according to a recent poll from the Angus Reid Institute<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-49b203a2\">A new leader brings momentum.<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Liberals are also benefiting from a fresh face. Prime Minister Mark Carney is leading the party after winning the race to replace former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced plans to resign in January and stepped down last month.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">That same Angus Reid poll found an even larger share \u2014 56 percent \u2014 of party-switchers saying that Mr. Carney was one of their top two reasons they were shifting their support to the Liberals.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Carney is the only national party leader whose favorability rating \u2014 the percentage of voters who like him minus those who say they don\u2019t \u2014 is currently positive, and his popularity surpasses that of his party itself.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/angusreid.org\/canadian-election-carney-poilievre-trump-liberals-conservatives-ndp-bloc-polling\/#p3\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">an Angus Reid poll<\/a> from late March, 54 percent of Canadians had a favorable view of Mr. Carney, compared with 35 percent for the Conservative Party\u2019s leader, Pierre Poilievre, and 33 percent for Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the leftist New Democratic Party, or N.D.P. Mr. Carney was also preferred by a majority of Canadians (52 percent), when asked which leader, between him and Mr. Poilievre, they thought would make the best prime minister.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIf Trudeau had stayed on, I don\u2019t think he would be getting the same numbers,\u201d said \u00c9ric Grenier, a Canadian polling analyst who runs <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thewrit.ca\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">The Writ<\/a>, an election analytics site. \u201cAnd if Trump wasn\u2019t there, I don\u2019t think Carney would be getting the same numbers.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-708d48c0\">Conservatives aren\u2019t doing that bad; Liberals are just doing that well.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">With a multiparty parliamentary system like Canada\u2019s, any single party polling at or above 40 percent of the popular vote has a really strong chance of securing a majority government. Currently, the Liberals are polling, on average, around 44 percent, according to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/newsinteractives.cbc.ca\/elections\/poll-tracker\/canada\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">the CBC\u2019s poll tracker,<\/a> while the Conservatives are sitting at 38 percent. In past cycles, the Conservatives have won power <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/vancouver.citynews.ca\/2011\/05\/03\/harper-wins-majority-government-ndp-official-opposition\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">with a similar share of support<\/a>, but in those elections, voters on the left were split.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Liberal Party has managed to consolidate support on the left at the expense of other parties. While the Liberals recovered in the polls, support for the N.D.P. has sunk to some of the lowest levels in decades.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThere have always been \u2018A.B.C.\u2019 voters \u2014 \u2018anything but conservative\u2019 \u2014 but the movement is marginal,\u201d said Philippe Fournier, who runs the election analytics site 338Canada. \u201cNot this time.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-630c4f3d\">Conservatives are losing support even among core demographics.<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">One notable demographic shift in the polls lately has been that Canada\u2019s younger voters have been breaking for the Conservatives.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/leger360.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Leger-CAN_voting_intentions_March_24th-FINAL.pdf\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Polling from Leger<\/a> in late March found that Canadians aged 18 to 34 preferred the Conservatives over the Liberals 39 to 37 percent,<span class=\"css-8l6xbc evw5hdy0\">  <\/span>while <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/nanos.co\/lpc-45-9-cpc-34-9-ndp-9-2-bq-5-2-gp-2-9-ppc-1-4-tracking-ending-april-4-2025\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">some polls<\/a> have showed young voters favoring the Conservatives by as much as 10 percentage points.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Over the past two years, Mr. Poilievre had made gains in this cohort, particularly among young men, in part because he offered change from the status quo, which many young Canadians feel isn\u2019t working for them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In fact, while Canadians over 50 have cited the continuing trade war as the top issue facing the country, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vmcdn.ca\/files\/trillium\/files\/pallasdata-canada-prewrit-electionthemes-26march2025_compressed.pdf?utm_source=tbnewswatch.com&amp;utm_campaign=tbnewswatch.com%3A%20outbound&amp;utm_medium=referral\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">those under 50 have been just as likely<\/a> to point to other issues, such as the cost of living, as their top concern. Similarly, just as in the United States, there\u2019s a gender gap, with men much more likely than women to back the Conservatives.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But these gaps are shrinking in almost every group, according to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/angusreid.org\/canada-election-carney-poilievre-singh-trump-liberals-conservatives-ndp-vote\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Angus Reid<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Support among men is now nearly evenly split, in the latest poll, with 44 percent of men saying they plan to vote Conservative compared to 42 percent who say they plan to vote Liberal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Only one age-gender group \u2014 men aged 35 to 54 \u2014 in the latest poll had a plurality that clearly preferred the Conservative Party, but that gap has also narrowed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/06\/world\/canada\/liberals-carney-trump-tariffs-election.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Though Canada\u2019s election began in earnest only late last month, public opinion polls have captured a gripping political narrative that<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17782,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[754,3855,962,239,114,861,338,4741,969,963,3856,1421,3922,1164,4740,968,113,168,109],"class_list":["post-17781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world","tag-canada","tag-carney","tag-conservative-party-canada","tag-customs-tariff","tag-donald-j","tag-elections","tag-international-trade-and-world-market","tag-jagmeet","tag-justin","tag-liberal-party-canada","tag-mark-j","tag-pierre","tag-poilievre","tag-polls-and-public-opinion","tag-singh","tag-trudeau","tag-trump","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-international-relations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trump, Tariffs and Carney: Canada Polls Show Liberals With Early 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