{"id":17749,"date":"2025-04-06T09:38:54","date_gmt":"2025-04-06T09:38:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/trumps-tariffs-will-wound-free-trade-but-the-blow-may-not-be-fatal\/"},"modified":"2025-04-06T09:38:54","modified_gmt":"2025-04-06T09:38:54","slug":"trumps-tariffs-will-wound-free-trade-but-the-blow-may-not-be-fatal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/trumps-tariffs-will-wound-free-trade-but-the-blow-may-not-be-fatal\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Tariffs Will Wound Free Trade, but the Blow May Not Be Fatal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">President Trump\u2019s self-proclaimed \u201cliberation day,\u201d in which he announced <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/03\/business\/economy\/trump-tariffs-trade.html\" title=\"\">across-the-board tariffs on the United States\u2019 trading partners<\/a>, carries an echo of another moment when an advanced Western economy threw up walls around itself.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Like <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2019\/world\/europe\/what-is-brexit.html\" title=\"\">Brexit<\/a>, Britain\u2019s fateful vote nearly nine years ago to leave the European Union, Mr. Trump\u2019s tariffs struck a hammer blow at the established order. He is pulling the United States out of the global economy much as Britain withdrew from a continentwide trading bloc, in what its backers viewed as a comparable act of liberation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The shock of Mr. Trump\u2019s move is <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/03\/business\/trump-tariffs-global-reaction.html\" title=\"\">reverberating even more widely<\/a>, given the larger size of the American economy and its place at the fulcrum of global commerce. Yet as with Brexit, its ultimate impact is unsettled: Mr. Trump could yet reverse himself, chastened by plummeting markets or mollified by one-off deals.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">More important, economists say, the rise of free trade may be irreversible, its benefits so powerful that the rest of the world finds a way to keep the system going, even without its central player. For all of the setbacks to trade liberalization, and the grievances expressed in Mr. Trump\u2019s actions, the barriers have kept falling.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The European Union, optimists point out, did not unravel after Britain\u2019s departure. These days, the political talk in London is about ways in which Britain can draw closer to its European neighbors. Still, that sense of possibility has come only after years of turbulence. Economists expect similar chaos to buffet the global trading system as a result of Mr. Trump\u2019s theatrical exit.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt will not be the end of free trade, but it is certainly a retreat from unfettered free trade, which is the way the world seemed to be going,\u201d said Eswar S. Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University. \u201cLogically, this would be a time when the rest of the world bands together to promote free trade among themselves,\u201d he said. \u201cThe reality is, it\u2019s going to be every country for itself.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Such a world will be not only unruly, but also potentially more dangerous. While trade wars do not necessarily spiral into shooting wars, historians note that some conflicts, like the War of 1812 and the Opium Wars of the mid-19th century, were rooted in trade disputes. An all-out trade war between the United States and China would inject sparks into an already combustible relationship.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIf you think about the broader conflict between the U.S. and China,\u201d Professor Prasad said, \u201cthe economic and financial relationship provided a degree of balance. That balance is now eroding.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Trump has stopped short of the kind of <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/11\/13\/sunday-review\/a-new-era-of-gunboat-diplomacy.html\" title=\"\">gunboat diplomacy<\/a> used by Britain against China in the Opium Wars. But his pugilistic posture toward some of America\u2019s closest trading partners, like Canada and Mexico, has deepened the sense of dislocation and could divide the response of countries.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Economists said the United States\u2019 singular position as the biggest engine of global growth, because of its unquenchable appetite for cars manufactured in Germany and iPhones assembled in China, would make it hard for countries to reorient their trading relationships around a less welcoming American market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">That suggests many countries will end up trying to cut deals with Mr. Trump, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he would do last week, after the United States <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/03\/world\/europe\/uk-trump-tariffs.html\" title=\"\">hit Britain with a 10 percent tariff<\/a>. Others will impose retaliatory tariffs to try to better their bargaining position with the United States.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">China struck swiftly on Friday, with <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/04\/business\/china-trump-tariffs-retaliation.html\" title=\"\">tit-for-tat tariffs of 34 percent<\/a>, after speculation that it might coordinate its response with its neighbors Japan and South Korea. Already, the European Union is warning countries that find themselves priced out of the American market not to dump cheap exports in its market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cA lot will depend on how Europe decides to play this,\u201d said Simon Johnson, a professor at the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T. and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. \u201cThe Europeans could get closer to China and pick up a lot of the slack from Vietnam.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThat would create a big non-U.S. trading bloc,\u201d he continued. \u201cBut I don\u2019t think the Europeans are going to be comfortable with all those Chinese exports pouring into Europe. Where do these excess exports go?\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Europe\u2019s likely resistance to absorbing more Chinese imports will <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/04\/world\/europe\/trump-tariffs-china.html\" title=\"\">confront China\u2019s leaders with a thorny challenge<\/a>. They can either adopt measures to make China less reliant on exports by stoking demand among their own population, something they tried to do in the past with mixed results. Or they can seek a deal with Mr. Trump, something they failed to do during his first term, despite signing a preliminary agreement.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For all of the criticism of Mr. Trump\u2019s blunt-force methods, economists say he is responding to a genuine problem: the rise of China as a hypercompetitive trading power, one that heavily subsidizes its own companies. That has hollowed out American manufacturing, in Mr. Trump\u2019s view; the tariffs, he claims, will bring it back.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">When he came into office, President Barack Obama asked whether one of his Democratic predecessors, Bill Clinton, had given away too much in allowing China to join the World Trade Organization. Mr. Obama imposed a 35 percent tariff on China from 2009 to 2012, for dumping tires into the American market. After Mr. Trump left office in 2021, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. left his China tariffs in place.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe global trading system has been under pressure for a while, and that pressure has really been symbolized by the rise of China,\u201d Professor Johnson said. \u201cIt was more damaging and disruptive than Japan.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In 2024, Professor Johnson, along with Daron Acemoglu of M.I.T. and James A. Robinson of the University of Chicago, received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for research into the colonial-era institutions that made some countries wealthier than others as they developed. One common factor, whether in Asia or Africa: \u201cAlmost all countries that escaped poverty did it through trade,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For that reason, it is unlikely that the world will drift into a state of autarky, where countries try to produce all they need within their own borders. The nature of global supply chains \u2014 from semiconductor factories in Taiwan to auto-parts suppliers in Canada \u2014 makes such economic isolation all but impossible, in any event.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The countries that will face the most pain from a trade war, economists said, are low-income exporters of commodity goods, which have little leverage to respond to Mr. Trump. Several are in Africa, among them Nigeria, which was hit with a 14 percent tariff, and Kenya and Ghana, both hit with 10 percent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The World Trade Organization estimated that Mr. Trump\u2019s measures, on top of his previously announced tariffs, will reduce global merchandise trade volume 1 percent in 2025, a downward revision of nearly four percentage points from its earlier forecast. A full-scale trade war would do further damage.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, some optimists predicted that Mr. Trump\u2019s tariffs would accelerate the integration of other countries, either through bilateral trade deals or regional trade pacts. The United States, they note, is the only country that pulled out of the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2016\/business\/tpp-explained-what-is-trans-pacific-partnership.html\" title=\"\">Trans-Pacific Partnership<\/a>, which was <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/11\/11\/business\/trump-tpp-trade.html\" title=\"\">later renegotiated<\/a> without it, forging a trade pact among the other big economies that border the Pacific.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Even Brexit, though it drew on the same grievances about globalization as Mr. Trump\u2019s MAGA movement, was not framed as a protectionist project. Brexiteers argued that, once freed from the shackles of the European Union, Britain could negotiate better trade deals on its own. Last week, they credited Brexit as the reason Britain\u2019s 10 percent tariff was half that of the European Union.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cYou\u2019re going to see more countries around the world striking free trade deals, just around the U.S.,\u201d said Jason Furman, a professor of economic policy at Harvard Kennedy School who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Obama administration. \u201cI see it as a turning point for the United States at the center of the global trading system,\u201d he said, \u201cbut not for how the world thinks about free trade.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     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echo<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17750,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[239,114,569,4209,98,338,686,685,113,1380],"class_list":["post-17749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world","tag-customs-tariff","tag-donald-j","tag-european-union","tag-great-britain-withdrawal-from-eu-brexit","tag-international-relations","tag-international-trade-and-world-market","tag-keir","tag-starmer","tag-trump","tag-world-trade-organization"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trump\u2019s Tariffs Will Wound Free Trade, but the Blow May Not Be Fatal - World News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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