{"id":16883,"date":"2025-04-02T00:22:39","date_gmt":"2025-04-02T00:22:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/trump-says-his-tariffs-could-bring-in-trillions-in-revenue-economists-disagree\/"},"modified":"2025-04-02T00:22:39","modified_gmt":"2025-04-02T00:22:39","slug":"trump-says-his-tariffs-could-bring-in-trillions-in-revenue-economists-disagree","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/trump-says-his-tariffs-could-bring-in-trillions-in-revenue-economists-disagree\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump says his tariffs could bring in trillions in revenue. Economists disagree."},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>President Trump<strong> <\/strong>has argued that some of the <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/trump-tariffs-april-2-liberation-day\/\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">tariffs he&#8217;s imposing this week<\/a><\/span> could help the government raise over $1 trillion in the next year or so, helping to reduce the national debt and even potentially offset some income taxes.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But economists are skeptical that these tariffs can bring in as much as Mr. Trump claims, as consumers will likely reduce their spending on foreign goods <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/trump-tariffs-price-tracker\/\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">when prices go up<\/a><\/span>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/what-are-tariffs-trump-canada-mexico-what-to-know\/\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Tariffs<\/a><\/span> are often charged as a percentage of the price that importers pay foreign sellers. They aren&#8217;t paid by foreign nations, but by U.S. companies who often <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/who-would-pay-for-trumps-promised-tariffs-you-will\/\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">pass the cost<\/a><\/span> to American consumers by raising prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;You&#8217;re going to see billions of dollars, even trillions of dollars coming into our country very soon in the form of tariffs,&#8221; the president <a href=\"https:\/\/rollcall.com\/factbase\/trump\/transcript\/donald-trump-remarks-ambassador-oval-office-march-25-2025\/#210\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">said<\/a> last week.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>While economic analyses indicate Mr. Trump&#8217;s tariffs could meaningfully increase annual tariff revenue, the president&#8217;s trillion-dollar estimates are significantly higher than those provided by think tanks and even some of his own officials.<\/p>\n<h2>How much Trump&#8217;s new auto tariffs could generate\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>In a recent news conference, White House staff secretary Will Sharf estimated that <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/trump-auto-tariffs-consumers-rush-to-buy\/\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Mr. Trump&#8217;s 25% tariff on vehicles<\/a><\/span> and auto parts imported into the U.S. could raise &#8220;roughly $100 billion in new revenue.&#8221; At the same news conference, Mr. Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rev.com\/transcripts\/trump-executive-order-on-auto-tariffs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">claimed<\/a> moments later &#8220;anywhere from $600 billion to $1 trillion will be taken in over the relatively short-term period, meaning a year from now.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The White House did not respond to a request to clarify the source of the discrepancy.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/budgetlab.yale.edu\/research\/fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-25-auto-tariffs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">The Yale Budget Lab<\/a>, a nonpartisan think tank, has estimated that the auto tariffs could raise roughly $600 billion to $650 billion over a period of 10 years \u2014 not in a single year, as Mr. Trump suggested. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;On an annual basis on average that&#8217;s $60 to 65 billion. We&#8217;re not even close to trillions,&#8221; said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab.<\/p>\n<p>The Yale Budget Lab also found that motor vehicle prices could rise by 13.5% on average for Americans, or an additional cost of $6,400 for an average new car.<\/p>\n<h2>How much Trump&#8217;s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could generate\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>The same researchers <a href=\"https:\/\/budgetlab.yale.edu\/research\/fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-20-tariffs-china-and-25-tariffs-canada-and-mexico\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">found<\/a> Mr. Trump&#8217;s 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, which are slated to go into effect this week, along with the additional <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/presidential-actions\/2025\/03\/further-amendment-to-duties-addressing-the-synthetic-opioid-supply-chain-in-the-peoples-republic-of-china\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">20% tax on Chinese imports<\/a> that the president has already put in place, could generate roughly $150 billion annually, or up to $1.5 trillion over 10 years. They also found the average household could lose $1,600 to $2,000 each year in inflation-adjusted disposable income as a result of higher prices.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs previously made higher estimates that Trump&#8217;s increased tariffs on these countries <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-china-truth-social\/\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">could generate roughly $300 billion<\/a><\/span> in new income per year.<\/p>\n<p>Either would be a meaningful increase over the <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/B235RC1A027NBEA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">$88 billion<\/a> in customs duties collected at ports of entry in 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>However, economists argue there&#8217;s a ceiling to tariff revenue that remains below $1 trillion per year.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2025\/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">imported<\/a> about $3.3 trillion in foreign goods last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Peterson Institute of International Economics estimated that even if Mr. Trump were to apply a 50% tariff to foreign imports from every country \u2014 which exceeds his stated plans \u2014 it would generate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.piie.com\/blogs\/realtime-economics\/2024\/can-trump-replace-income-taxes-tariffs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">at most<\/a> about $780 billion annually.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If you make something 50% more expensive, you don&#8217;t expect people to buy the same amount,&#8221; said Kimberly Clausing, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute.<\/p>\n<h2>Could tariff revenue replace income taxes?<\/h2>\n<p>Mr. Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of using his tariff agenda to offset or even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/minnesota\/video\/trump-proposes-to-replace-income-taxes-with-steep-tariffs-reality-check\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">replace<\/a> income taxes.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Under the American first economic model, as tariffs on other countries go up, taxes on American workers and businesses will come down,&#8221; Trump said in a <a href=\"https:\/\/rollcall.com\/factbase\/trump\/transcript\/donald-trump-speech-house-gop-conference-miami-january-27-2025\/#121\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">speech<\/a> to the House GOP in January.<\/p>\n<p>Income taxes <a href=\"https:\/\/fiscaldata.treasury.gov\/americas-finance-guide\/government-revenue\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">generate<\/a> over $2 trillion per year, according to the Department of the Treasury. Even if a president imposed 50% tariffs on all imports, the income generated would represent less than 40% of what income taxes bring in, according to the Peterson Institute.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The problem is it can&#8217;t raise anywhere near the amount of revenue you&#8217;d need to scuttle the income tax. And that&#8217;s the really, I think, ironclad point,&#8221; said Scott Lincicome, a vice president of general economics and trade at the Cato Institute, which is a libertarian think tank.<\/p>\n<p>Historians on U.S. trade <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/trump-tariffs-history-fact-check\/\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">note<\/a><\/span> that tariffs have not been viewed as a primary way to raise revenue since income taxes were introduced in 1913.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In 2024, <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/B235RC1A027NBEA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">tariff<\/a> collections on imports represented just 1.7% of the more than $4.9 trillion in total <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/FYFR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">federal revenue<\/a>. And according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/crs-product\/IF11030\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Congressional Research Service<\/a>, tariffs have not accounted for much more than 2% of federal revenue in the last 70 years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content__meta--contributors\">\n      <em><\/p>\n<p>                                  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/team\/aimee-picchi\/\" class=\"byline__author__link\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Aimee Picchi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>        contributed to this report.<br \/>\n      <\/em>\n    <\/p>\n<p>    <!-- data-recirc-source=\"queryly\" --><\/p>\n<aside class=\"component list recirculation component--type-recirculation \">\n<p><h3 class=\"component__title\">More from CBS News<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>    <!-- tags --><\/p>\n<div class=\"content-author\">\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/team\/laura-doan\/\" class=\"content-author__name\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Laura Doan<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"content-author__bio\">\n<div class=\"content-author__image\">\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/team\/laura-doan\/\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\"><br \/>\n              <span class=\"img \"><img alt=\"img-3305.jpg \" height=\"80\" width=\"80\" class=\" lazyload\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets2.cbsnewsstatic.com\/hub\/i\/r\/2025\/01\/23\/7208852c-0517-4447-b55b-1fe2cd98438c\/thumbnail\/80x80\/5a64960c898535c66340cd987d2a2ea0\/img-3305.jpg?v=7613930c2bdb7d1bf55be910a9b022f2 1x, https:\/\/assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com\/hub\/i\/r\/2025\/01\/23\/7208852c-0517-4447-b55b-1fe2cd98438c\/thumbnail\/160x160\/b6206c957d7138cadd8d838fb2c039ea\/img-3305.jpg?v=7613930c2bdb7d1bf55be910a9b022f2 2x\"\/><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/a>\n          <\/div>\n<div class=\"content-author__full-information\">\n<p class=\"content-author__text\">Laura Doan is a fact checker for CBS News Confirmed. She covers misinformation, AI and social media.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/factcheck-trump-tariffs-revenue\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Trump has argued that some of the tariffs he&#8217;s imposing this week could help the government raise over $1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16884,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[799,386],"class_list":["post-16883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-tariffs","tag-trump-administration"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trump says his tariffs could bring in trillions in revenue. 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