{"id":14683,"date":"2025-03-22T09:48:31","date_gmt":"2025-03-22T09:48:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/dementia-may-not-always-be-the-threat-it-is-now-heres-why\/"},"modified":"2025-03-22T09:48:31","modified_gmt":"2025-03-22T09:48:31","slug":"dementia-may-not-always-be-the-threat-it-is-now-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/dementia-may-not-always-be-the-threat-it-is-now-heres-why\/","title":{"rendered":"Dementia May Not Always Be the Threat It Is Now. Here\u2019s Why."},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Joan Presky worries about dementia. Her mother lived with Alzheimer\u2019s disease for 14 years, the last seven in a memory-care residence, and her maternal grandfather developed dementia, too.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cI\u2019m 100 percent convinced that this is in my future,\u201d said Ms. Presky, 70, a retired attorney in Thornton, Colo.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Last year, she spent almost a full day with a neuropsychologist, undergoing an extensive evaluation. The results indicated that her short-term memory was fine \u2014 which she found \u201cshocking and comforting\u201d \u2014 and that she tested average or above in every cognitive category but one.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">She\u2019s not reassured. \u201cI saw what Alzheimer\u2019s was like,\u201d she said of her mother\u2019s long decline. \u201cThe memory of what she went through is profound for me.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The prospect of dementia, which encompasses Alzheimer\u2019s disease and a number of other cognitive disorders, so <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full\/10.1177\/1533317514568889\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">frightens Americans<\/a> that a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41591-024-03340-9\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">recent study projecting steep increases<\/a> in cases over the next three decades drew enormous public attention. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The researchers\u2019 findings, published in January in Nature Medicine, even showed up as a joke on the Weekend Update segment of \u201cSaturday Night Live.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cDementia is a devastating condition, and it\u2019s very much related to the oldest ages,\u201d said Dr. Josef Coresh, director of the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone Health and the senior author of the study. \u201cThe globe is getting older.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Now the findings are being challenged by other dementia researchers who say that while increases are coming, they will be far smaller than Dr. Coresh and his co-authors predicted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Using data from about 15,000 Americans over age 55, collected at four research clinics around the country from 1987 through 2020, Dr. Coresh\u2019s team projected a lifetime dementia risk much higher than previous studies had: 42 percent, though most of that risk didn\u2019t emerge until after age 85.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The higher lifetime number probably reflected the study\u2019s reliance on a more diverse sample than earlier researchers had used, Dr. Coresh said, and more dementia cases identified through in-depth questionnaires, regular phone calls, medical records and death certificates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The researchers applied their risk calculations to the U.S. population and estimated that the number of people who would develop dementia each year would roughly double, to about a million by 2060, from 514,000 in 2020.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Eric Stallard, an actuary and co-director of the Biodemography of Aging Research Unit at Duke University, read the study and thought the team \u201cseemed very competent at their analysis\u201d of individual risk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But when it came to the projection that cases would double, which assumed that the incidence of dementia would remain stable over the next 40 years, \u201cI don\u2019t believe it,\u201d Mr. Stallard said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe notion that the number of people with dementia will double over the next 25, 30 or 35 years due to the aging of baby boomers is widespread, it\u2019s pervasive \u2014 and it\u2019s wrong,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">He and two other Duke researchers recently published <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2831385\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">a commentary in JAMA<\/a> pointing out that the age-specific prevalence of dementia in this country had steadily declined for 40 years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIf your risks are lower than your parents\u2019 risks and this trend continues, you won\u2019t see the doubling or tripling of dementia that\u2019s been projected,\u201d said Dr. Murali Doraiswamy, director of the Neurocognitive Disorders Program at Duke and a co-author of the JAMA article.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">To be clear, experts agree that the number of people with dementia will climb in coming decades, simply because the disorder rises so steeply with age and the number of older adults in the United States will increase.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Mr. Stallard estimates that the increase will be more like 10 to 25 percent by 2050. \u201cIt will still be a significant challenge for the health system in the U.S.,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The Duke group relied on its own long-term study of people over age 65, with more than 21,000 respondents in 1984 and about 16,000 in 2004, plus later data from the national Health and Retirement Study and the National Health and Aging Trends Study.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Their analysis found that among 85- to 89-year-olds, for instance, the proportion with dementia was about 23 percent in the cohort born in 1905. In those born 10 years later, the figure had dropped to about 18 percent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">By the time Americans born in 1935 reached their late 80s, about 11 percent had dementia; the projection for those born from 1945 to 1949 is now about 8 percent.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">To Dr. Coresh, whose primary interest was in individual risk, the assumption that past declines would continue at about the current rate \u201cwould be great, but is quite an optimistic, dramatic decrease,\u201d he said in an email.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Yet in <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43587-024-00741-w\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">another longitudinal study<\/a> of older adults in England and China, published in Nature Aging last year, \u201cwe also found these quite marked improvements in more recently born cohorts,\u201d said the lead author, Dr. John Beard, a medical epidemiologist at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cYou would expect the increase in the absolute numbers of people with dementia in the U.S. will be less than we feared,\u201d Dr. Beard said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">What has led to the decrease in dementia, also seen in several European countries? Often cited explanations include rising education levels, reduced smoking and improved treatment for high blood pressure and high cholesterol.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(24)01296-0\/abstract\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Lancet Commission<\/a> on dementia, intervention and care has developed a list of 14 modifiable risk factors, including greater use of hearing aids and reduced air pollution, that could still lead to <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/07\/03\/health\/dementia-treatment-behavior-eye-care.html\" title=\"\">greater declines<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Yet the reverse could also happen. If earlier and more widespread testing increases the number of dementia diagnoses, or if the definition of dementia broadens, rates will increase, Dr. Doraiswamy noted. Increasing life expectancy would have the same effect.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Obesity and diabetes, more common in recent decades, could lead to more dementia, but much-touted new drugs that reduce them could blunt that trend \u2014 if people can get them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cNone of this is inevitable,\u201d said Dr. Gill Livingston, a psychiatrist at University College London who leads the Lancet Commission. \u201cIt depends on what we do.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Public health policy makes a major difference, she noted, and, \u201cThe U.S. is in a time where policy is changing enormously.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Dementia rates might rise, for example, \u201cif people have less access to health care, so they are less likely to get their blood pressure treated and their high cholesterol treated,\u201d Dr. Livingston said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\"><a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/02\/25\/us\/politics\/medicaid-cuts-republican-budget.html\" title=\"\">Slashed Medicaid coverage<\/a> could lead to that result. So could a rollback of environmental policies, \u201cif air pollution increases because of fossil fuels,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Already, dementia afflicts some American populations far more than others, researchers point out. Older women and Black people face greater risk, along with those who carry the APOE4 gene associated with Alzheimer\u2019s disease.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Health disparities could mean that \u201caffluent people will see lower rates of dementia\u201d because of the new diabetes and obesity drugs, Dr. Doraiswamy said. \u201cPeople who can\u2019t afford them and whose conditions are not well-managed will see rates go up.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The debate about how many older adults will develop dementia in coming decades, and about how individuals, families, government and the health care system should respond, will likely continue.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">So will Ms. Presky\u2019s fears.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">For now, she enrolls in lifelong learning classes, takes walks and yoga classes despite orthopedic problems, listens to podcasts and reads a lot of history and fiction. She and her husband take in theater in New York and Phish concerts on the West Coast and will soon be heading to London and Paris.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, her advance directive contains many provisions about dementia. \u201cI remain pessimistic,\u201d she said, noting that her mother was diagnosed at 77. \u201cI have seven more years before I meet her fate.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/22\/health\/dementia-rates-elderly.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Joan Presky worries about dementia. Her mother lived with Alzheimer\u2019s disease for 14 years, the last seven in a memory-care<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14684,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[2504,1415,2505,1411,1412,4679,1417,268],"class_list":["post-14683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-health-2","tag-age","tag-alzheimers-disease","tag-chronological","tag-dementia","tag-elderly","tag-journal-of-the-american-medical-assn","tag-memory","tag-research"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Dementia May Not Always Be the Threat It Is Now. Here\u2019s Why. - World News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/dementia-may-not-always-be-the-threat-it-is-now-heres-why\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dementia May Not Always Be the Threat It Is Now. Here\u2019s Why. - World News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Joan Presky worries about dementia. 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