{"id":13073,"date":"2025-03-15T09:42:03","date_gmt":"2025-03-15T09:42:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/as-trump-stirs-doubt-europeans-debate-their-own-nuclear-deterrent\/"},"modified":"2025-03-15T09:42:03","modified_gmt":"2025-03-15T09:42:03","slug":"as-trump-stirs-doubt-europeans-debate-their-own-nuclear-deterrent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/as-trump-stirs-doubt-europeans-debate-their-own-nuclear-deterrent\/","title":{"rendered":"As Trump Stirs Doubt, Europeans Debate Their Own Nuclear Deterrent"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Germany\u2019s next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, set European pigeons flying in circles when <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.euractiv.com\/section\/politics\/news\/merz-considers-extension-of-french-british-nuclear-umbrella-to-germany\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">he suggested<\/a> last month that given rising mistrust in President Trump\u2019s commitment to NATO, he wanted to talk to France and Britain about extending nuclear deterrence over Germany.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Warning that a \u201cprofound change of American geopolitics\u201d had put Poland, as well as Ukraine, in an \u201cobjectively more difficult situation,\u201d Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/07\/world\/europe\/poland-nuclear-trump-tusk.html\" title=\"\">suggested the same<\/a>, while hinting that Poland, with its long history of Russian occupation, might eventually develop its own bomb.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Then Poland\u2019s president, Andrzej Duda, said this week that it was time for the United States to consider redeploying some of its nuclear weapons from Western Europe to Poland. \u201cI think it\u2019s not only that the time has come, but that it would be safer if those weapons were already here,\u201d Mr. <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/f9e5f2a9-5d81-4557-af6d-ed3a33eecf1a\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Duda told<\/a> the Financial Times.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The uproar was immediate, given the sensitivity and complications of the nuclear issue and the whole concept of extended deterrence \u2014 the willingness of a nuclear-armed country to use its nuclear weapons in defense of a nonnuclear ally. That commitment is at the heart of NATO\u2019s Article Five, promising collective defense, and hinges on the massive American nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Trump and his officials <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2025\/02\/27\/nx-s1-5310656\/trump-keir-starmer-russia-ukraine\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">say they remain committed<\/a> to extending the American nuclear umbrella over Europe, the vital deterrent to any serious Russian aggression, and to the alliance itself. But his evident hostility toward Europe has so unnerved America\u2019s traditional European allies that it has provoked strong doubts that they can depend on the United States.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">There are fears that talking too much about a European replacement, let alone trying to construct one, would only encourage Mr. Trump to withdraw his pledge. Even so, European allies are now engaged in the most serious debate in generations about what Europe\u2019s nuclear defense should be.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Like many things when it comes to European defense, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/07\/world\/europe\/europe-self-defense-trump.html?searchResultPosition=2\" title=\"\">replacing the American commitment<\/a> would not be easy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Today France and Britain are the only two Western powers in Europe who possess nuclear weapons. For others, like Germany, to join the nuclear club would be expensive, require leaving the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and could seem more threatening to Moscow, raising risks rather than lowering them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But together, the French and British have only about 500 warheads compared with some 3,700 in the American arsenal, with another 1,300 or so waiting to be deactivated. The Americans also have what is known as the \u201ctriad\u201d \u2014 nuclear weapons on land-based missiles, bombers and submarines.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The French have no land-based missiles but do have nuclear-equipped bombers and submarines, while the British have only submarines.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And only the French nuclear arsenal is truly independent of the United States, technically and politically. France has always refused to join NATO\u2019s nuclear planning group, keeping sole authority on the use of its weapons in the hands of the French president, currently Emmanuel Macron.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The British deterrent depends on American Trident II missiles, launching mechanisms and maintenance, raising at least the question of whether the British government has full authority to launch these weapons.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">French doctrine has always been kept a bit vague, part of the uncertainty that is the heart of deterrence. \u201cWe have a pretty good idea what the French will not do, but not such a clear understanding of what they are willing to do,\u201d said Claudia Major, head of trans-Atlantic security studies for the German Marshall Fund.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Since 2020, Mr. Macron has sometimes spoken of France\u2019s vital national interests as having \u201ca European dimension,\u201d without specifying what that is. Earlier this month, he announced a \u201cstrategic debate on using our deterrence to protect our allies on the European continent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cBut how far does that \u2018European dimension\u2019 go?\u201d Ms. Major asked. \u201cThe French won\u2019t define it and of course don\u2019t want Russia to know.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The security of neighboring Germany and perhaps Poland would likely qualify as vital French national interests, said Erik Jones, director of the Robert Schuman Center at the European University Institute.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But it is far from clear that a quick conventional Russian attack on Estonia or Lithuania would prompt a French nuclear threat or response. \u201cThe vital interests of France do not reach that far,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The French nuclear deterrent is not meant to provide an American-style extended deterrence on the cheap, said Camille Grand, a former French and NATO defense official. But it does provide another degree of uncertainty for Moscow that complements and even strengthens NATO nuclear policy, he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Since both France and Britain are European, their national interests are more likely to stretch to the European neighborhood than is the case for the distant United States, Mr. Grand argued. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Then there is the question of the next French president. Should it be Marine Le Pen, the head of the far-right National Rally, she might have a narrower view of French interests. That could undermine the credibility of an extended French nuclear deterrent in the same way that Europeans have become anxious over Mr. Trump\u2019s commitment.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, with both bombers and submarines, France maintains an \u201cescalation ladder,\u201d with the ability to threaten use without doing so. For example, in February 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, France put a third nuclear submarine out to sea, \u201ca quiet but explicit message that the Russians saw,\u201d Mr. Grand said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As Mr. Merz and the Polish leaders suggested, France might also consider \u201cnuclear sharing,\u201d as the Americans now do. There are five European countries \u2014 Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Turkey \u2014 that currently host American B61 nuclear bombs and have their own airplanes to deliver them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Poland would like to be a sixth. While French nuclear-capable bombers have been refueled by Italy, for instance, for France to decide to place some of its nuclear weapons and bombers in other countries would be a break with its current doctrine. In any case, France and its president would retain total control over their use.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Submarines by themselves do not provide an escalation ladder, because they are supposed to remain hidden, and either fire missiles or don\u2019t. That is one reason British officials are considering restoring the air leg of their deterrent. Ideally, the British would also benefit from another nuclear-capable submarine, so more than one can be at sea. But the expense is enormous.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-8\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And there is no way to share a submarine with another country, the way an air-launched bomb or missile can be shared.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In the end, the core of NATO\u2019s nuclear deterrent remains the United States, said Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-9\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The question for him is less the number of warheads than the credibility of the deterrence. \u201cHow to make a deterrent versus Russia credible when you\u2019re an ocean away and convince allies you\u2019re willing to make the ultimate sacrifice for them?\u201d he asked. \u201cUnfortunately, Trump answers those questions without even raising them.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Given all the uncertainty, Germany might have to go nuclear itself, said Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute. \u201cSo far talk of a German bomb has been limited to fringe types, but now it becomes more mainstream,\u201d he said. But he prefers discussing nuclear sharing with France, with French bombers on German bases.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Matthew Kroenig, a former defense department official who directs the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, thinks the debate has been beneficial to get Europeans to take defense more seriously.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cNATO allies should do a lot more of the nuts and bolts of conventional defense, but some high-end stuff like nuclear deterrence \u2014 only the United States can provide,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ms. Major has another concern, widely shared. \u201cThe more we do for defense the better for us,\u201d she said. \u201cBut does it send the wrong signal and have the unintended consequence of America leaving? It\u2019s the decoupling argument that we fear so much.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/15\/world\/europe\/nuclear-deterrent-trump.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Germany\u2019s next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, set European pigeons flying in circles when he suggested last month that given rising mistrust<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13074,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[3085,365,935,576,114,3084,2178,2457,151,152,1344,763,949,98,2047,2177,2048,1343,404,881,359,327,469,852,4229,113,109,4230],"class_list":["post-13073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world","tag-andrzej-1972","tag-arms-control-and-limitation-and-disarmament","tag-belgium","tag-defense-and-military-forces","tag-donald-j","tag-duda","tag-emmanuel-1977","tag-estonia","tag-europe","tag-france","tag-friedrich","tag-germany","tag-great-britain","tag-international-relations","tag-le-pen","tag-macron","tag-marine","tag-merz","tag-netherlands","tag-north-atlantic-treaty-organization","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-poland","tag-politics-and-government","tag-russia","tag-submarines-and-submersibles","tag-trump","tag-united-states-international-relations","tag-western-europe"],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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