{"id":10587,"date":"2025-03-05T11:32:28","date_gmt":"2025-03-05T11:32:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/how-soon-could-ukraines-forces-start-to-buckle-without-u-s-weapons\/"},"modified":"2025-03-05T11:32:28","modified_gmt":"2025-03-05T11:32:28","slug":"how-soon-could-ukraines-forces-start-to-buckle-without-u-s-weapons","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/how-soon-could-ukraines-forces-start-to-buckle-without-u-s-weapons\/","title":{"rendered":"How Soon Could Ukraine\u2019s Forces \u2018Start to Buckle\u2019 Without U.S. Weapons?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Without billions of dollars in American-made weapons, it may be only a matter of time before Ukraine\u2019s forces falter against Russia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">How much time, however, depends on how quickly Europe and Ukraine can make up for the artillery, missiles, air-defense systems and other arms that Trump administration officials said on Monday were being put on hold. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The United States had committed to delivering as much as $11 billion in weapons and equipment to Ukraine this year. Some of it was from Pentagon stockpiles, while some was ordered through new defense contracts, according to a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/ukraine-now-doomed\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">new analysis<\/a> by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. A former senior U.S. defense official on Tuesday said the actual figure was likely closer to $9 billion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-1\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Despite Europe\u2019s pledges of unwavering support for Ukraine, which have only intensified since the Trump administration began <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/02\/28\/us\/politics\/trump-ukraine-zelensky.html\" title=\"\">pulling back<\/a>, it would be nearly impossible for it to fill the weapons gap quickly. European defense industries have ramped up, but only in fits and starts. And individual countries need to maintain their own weapons stockpiles.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cEurope can\u2019t possibly replace American aid,\u201d the former deputy of Ukraine\u2019s military general staff, Lt. Gen. Ihor Romanenko, said last month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ukraine itself has been churning out drones and building up domestically made artillery systems, and it plans to spend 26 percent of its budget on defense this year. But some top Ukrainian officials say the military will be in dire straits if American support is not restarted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cUkraine definitely has a safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult, of course,\u201d one lawmaker, Fedir Venislavskyi, told the news agency RBC-Ukraine on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Some analysts say they think even that may be overly optimistic. <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cCertainly, by the four-month time period, their forces would start to buckle, because they just wouldn\u2019t have enough munitions and equipment to replace what they\u2019ve lost,\u201d said one of the authors of the Center for Strategic and International Studies study, Mark F. Cancian, a former White House weapons strategist.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-6016d45f\">Why can\u2019t Europe fill the gap?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Of the $136 billion in military aid that allies provided Ukraine from the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022 to the end of last year, nearly half came from the United States, according to the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ifw-kiel.de\/topics\/war-against-ukraine\/ukraine-support-tracker\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Kiel Institute<\/a> for the World Economy, a German research organization.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The American share has dwindled over time as the defense industries in Ukraine and Europe have accelerated production. Only about 20 percent of military hardware currently supplied to Ukraine comes from the United States, according to recent estimates by the Royal United Services Institute, an analytical group affiliated with the British military.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cBut the 20 percent is the most lethal and important,\u201d said Malcolm Chalmers, the institute\u2019s deputy director general. Ukraine won\u2019t abruptly collapse without the American weapons, Mr. Chalmers predicted. \u201cThe effect,\u201d he said, \u201cwill be cumulative.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The United States, the world\u2019s largest economy, simply has more resources at its disposal. Its Air Force, for example, has 17 large electronic surveillance aircraft, while Britain has only three, according to Douglas Barrie, a military aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. The United States contributes over half of all NATO\u2019s fighter jets and ground-attack aircraft.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Citing the \u201cshort-term urgency to act,\u201d the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on Tuesday announced a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/04\/world\/europe\/eu-defense-spending.html\" title=\"\">$841 billion plan<\/a> to increase defense budgets across Europe and encourage joint procurement among states to speed weapons manufacturing. But previous efforts have fallen short, with E.U. countries pulled between domestic spending priorities and defense contractors unable to produce vast amounts of costly weapons without upfront capital.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ms. von der Leyen seemed to acknowledge this.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe real question in front of us is whether Europe is prepared to act as decisively as the situation dictates, and whether Europe is ready and able to act with speed and with the ambition that is needed,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Artillery production in Europe is now nearly able to keep up with the wartime demands, said Camille Grand, who was NATO\u2019s assistant secretary general for defense investment when Russia invaded. That is a remarkable turnabout for an industry that had atrophied after the end of the Cold War in 1991.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But manufacturers of more advanced weapons like the air defenses Ukraine says are crucial to its survival are still struggling to quickly produce those systems in large numbers. It can take years to hire and train additional workers, expand factory space and obtain rare earths and other raw materials in a competitive market that has been slowed by a limited supply chain.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And industry executives say they cannot invest in those improvements without the guarantee of contracts that generally run for at least a decade, and that some governments have been unwilling to provide.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe are not on a real war economy footage as we speak, certainly by comparison with Russia,\u201d said Mr. Grand, now a weapons expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He said it would take more political will in Europe to get defense contracts rolling: \u201cMoney is not sufficient to solve everything.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-56899a37\">What is Ukraine doing to arm itself?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ukraine\u2019s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, insisted on social media this week that \u201cof course, our military, the government, have the capabilities, the tools to maintain the situation on the front line.\u201d But he would not disclose what is left in Ukraine\u2019s stockpile, likely to prevent exposing any vulnerabilities to Russia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Shmyhal said that Ukraine would be able to produce enough artillery for itself by later this year, and that it was<span class=\"css-8l6xbc evw5hdy0\">  <\/span>building its own armored vehicles and antitank weapons. Last year, Ukraine built more than one million first-person-view<span class=\"css-8l6xbc evw5hdy0\">  <\/span>drones, and intends to increase production in 2025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ukraine is also reportedly trying to produce air defenses as sophisticated as the American-made Patriot system, which can intercept ballistic missiles. Each Patriot system \u2014 consisting of interceptor missiles, launchers, radar and a command center \u2014 can cost $1 billion and takes up to two years to build.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Of the seven Patriot air defense systems that the United States and Germany have given Ukraine, at least two have been destroyed, according to the weapons tracking site Oryx. Shorter-range air defenses have been sent by Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Romania, among others.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe, and the Russian bombardment has been incessant. \u201cYou\u2019re always going to have to pick and choose \u2014 you aren\u2019t going to be able to defend against everything,\u201d said Mr. Barrie, the military aerospace expert.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<h2 class=\"css-13o6u42 eoo0vm40\" id=\"link-6504bec\">\u2018Doomed?\u2019<\/h2>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In his study, titled \u201cIs Ukraine Now Doomed?\u201d Mr. Cancian predicted that without U.S. military aid, Kyiv would be forced to accept an unfavorable cease-fire agreement with Russia. That might mean ceding a fifth of its territory and giving up its aspirations to join NATO.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And some allies might now decide to cut back their own aid, reasoning that without American support, \u201cthis is a lost cause,\u201d Mr. Cancian said in an interview.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">It is not clear if the Trump administration will also cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Fears also have been raised recently that Ukraine will lose access to the Starlink satellite internet system that facilitates military communication and is owned by Elon Musk, Mr. Trump\u2019s close ally.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But it is clear that \u201chalting security assistance will only make it more challenging for Ukraine to reach a just and lasting end to this war,\u201d said David Shimer, who was the National Security Council\u2019s director for Eastern Europe and Ukraine during the Biden administration.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt will reduce Ukraine\u2019s leverage, weaken the Ukrainian military, and therefore undermine Ukraine\u2019s negotiating position with Russia,\u201d Mr. Shimer said. \u201cThe United States should be focused on strengthening, not weakening, Ukraine\u2019s hand ahead of a negotiation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Michael Schwirtz<!-- --> contributed reporting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/03\/05\/world\/americas\/ukraine-us-weapons-suspension.html\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Without billions of dollars in American-made weapons, it may be only a matter of time before Ukraine\u2019s forces falter against<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10588,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[576,151,407,852,400,168,109],"class_list":["post-10587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world","tag-defense-and-military-forces","tag-europe","tag-foreign-aid","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-united-states","tag-united-states-international-relations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How Soon Could Ukraine\u2019s Forces \u2018Start to Buckle\u2019 Without U.S. Weapons? - World News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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