{"id":105033,"date":"2026-10-19T18:24:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T18:24:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/california-billionaire-tax-could-leave-state-with-less-revenue-stanford-study-cautions\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T18:24:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T18:24:26","slug":"california-billionaire-tax-could-leave-state-with-less-revenue-stanford-study-cautions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.itshrt.com\/worldnews\/california-billionaire-tax-could-leave-state-with-less-revenue-stanford-study-cautions\/","title":{"rendered":"California billionaire tax could leave state with less revenue, Stanford study cautions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>California voters next month will decide on whether to <span class=\"link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/proposition-40-californias-proposed-billionaire-tax-how-does-it-add-up\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">tax billionaire wealth<\/a><\/span>, a proposal designed to generate billions of dollars to shore up the state&#8217;s healthcare system. But Stanford economists are now cautioning that the tax could backfire, leaving the state with less in tax revenue than before.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Seven billionaires have already publicly moved out of California, removing about $540 billion, or 30%, of the state&#8217;s total billionaire wealth from potential taxation, according to Stanford University economists Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/system\/files\/working_papers\/w35899\/w35899.pdf?utm_campaign=PANTHEON_STRIPPED&amp;amp%3Butm_medium=PANTHEON_STRIPPED&amp;amp%3Butm_source=PANTHEON_STRIPPED\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new working paper<\/a> published by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The billionaires who have left the state include venture capitalist Peter Thiel and Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin.<\/p>\n<p>Because additional billionaires have likely quietly moved since the tax proposal was announced, the measure may ultimately generate only about $30 billion, far less than the $100 billion estimated by its proponents, the economists said. If enacted, the tax would apply a one-time 5% state tax on billionaire wealth.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>To be sure, $30 billion is still a sizable amount of new tax revenue. But future income tax losses from those billionaire departures could more than offset that windfall, the economists calculated.<\/p>\n<p>California could lose roughly $1 billion to $3.5 billion a year in income tax revenue due to its shrinking billionaire population, the paper&#8217;s authors estimated. If those losses persist permanently, their value in today&#8217;s dollars would exceed the wealth tax proceeds by about $39 billion, the economists said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;These findings suggest that the Billionaire Tax Act will not fulfill the primary functions for which it was designed,&#8221; Jaros and Rauh wrote. &#8220;Although the Act was designed to raise revenue, behavioral response prior to voting has eroded most of the projected tax base.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW), a healthcare worker union that introduced the ballot measure, didn&#8217;t immediately respond to a request for comment on the new research.<\/p>\n<p>Other economists have come to different conclusions about the tax. Economists including Daron Acemoglu of MIT and Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University, both Nobel Prize winners, have <a href=\"https:\/\/gabriel-zucman.eu\/files\/prop40letter.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">signed their support<\/a> for the measure, pointing out that California has attracted more venture funding since the wealth tax was announced.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;What will allow California to thrive in the future is not letting a handful of billionaires live tax free: it is adequate public spending on health, education and public infrastructure, key engines of economic growth to which it is only fair to ask the ultra-wealthy to contribute,&#8221; they wrote in a September letter of support for the tax.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Ahead of the vote on the ballot measure, called\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/calmatters.org\/california-voter-guide-2026\/proposition-40-billionaire-tax\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Proposition 40<\/a>, voters in California are apparently divided on the tax. About 46% of likely voters say they favor Proposition 40, while 43% are opposed, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/f\/?id=000001a1-471e-dc9a-a9a3-5f7e57680000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new poll <\/a>from Citrin-Politico.<\/p>\n<p>Dave Regan, the leader of the union that introduced the measure, told CBS News&#8217; Jo Ling Kent that he&#8217;s &#8220;pretty confident&#8221; the tax will pass.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;There&#8217;s never been a proposal like this anywhere in the world, so it&#8217;s a novel idea,&#8221; Regan said. &#8220;We are facing an emergency.&#8221;<\/p>\n<section class=\"content__body--footer\">\n<p class=\"content__meta--editors\">\n      Edited by<\/p>\n<p>                                  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/team\/stephen-smith\/\" class=\"byline__author__link\" data-invalid-url-rewritten-http=\"\">Stephen  Smith<\/a>\n                      <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p>  <!-- data-recirc-source=\"queryly\" --><\/p>\n<aside class=\"component list recirculation component--type-recirculation  \">\n        <\/aside>\n<section class=\"content__body--footer\">\n      <!-- tags --><\/p>\n<section class=\"content__tags\">\n<p class=\"content__tags__label\">In:<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- ItShrt World News -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6606220950177433\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1882483372\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\r\n<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/california-billionaire-tax-stanford-study\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>California voters next month will decide on whether to tax billionaire wealth, a proposal designed to generate billions of dollars<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":105034,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[283,246],"class_list":["post-105033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-money-watch","tag-california","tag-taxes"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>California billionaire tax could leave state with less revenue, Stanford study cautions - World News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A new analysis from Stanford economists cautions that enacting a billionaire tax could have unintended consequences.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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